1. Context and background
On 22nd January 2023, the Zambia Red Cross Society (ZRCS) received an alert on the Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) and Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The system is able to detect riverine flooding and its connecting to water gauge stations managed by Water Resource Management Authority (WARMA) on water bodies across the country.
According to the system, there was a likelihood to experience floods in 10 districts across the country and potentially affecting a total of 100,264 people (16,712 Households).
Wusakile ward in Kitwe district of Copper belt province was likely to record the highest number, that is 16,468 people (2,745 HH). The anticipated floods were likely to occur on 28th January 2023.
The trigger statement indicates that the flood will be 20 years return flood, 7 days lead time, above 1000 HH and 100% threshold in the IBF and GloFAS. The Early Action Protocol (EAP) will be activated and expected to be implemented in 7 days.
The EAP targeted 2000 HH 1000 HH in Kitwe district and 1000 HH in Kafue district [The areas where ZRCS implemented both anticipatory actions as well as response activities] in sectors of WASH/Health and Shelter, focusing much on early warning information, hygiene and health promotion, provision of WASH Non-Food Items. The National Society (NS) worked in close coordination with key stakeholders including the government and communities to identify and assess the status of relocation sites, access routes, status of sanitation facilities and digging the trenches to divert flood water.
From the time the alert was received, the Forecast Based Financing (FBF) Technical Working Group on Anticipatory Actions held a meeting to evaluate the situation and agreed to activate the EAP. The Government through DMMU and ZRCS Kitwe and Kafue Branch were already in Kitwe district conducting some early warning information dissemination in high risk communities through local radio stations before the anticipated date of flooding. The government also broadcasted some mass SMS to the resident of Kitwe alerting them on the anticipated floods.
2. EAP Activation scope
The Netherlands Red Cross is commissioning a semi-external review of the Early Action Protocol Activation in Zambia for the floods of February 2023. The objectives of the EAP Activation were the following:
Objective (1)
Communities in disaster and crisis affected areas restore and strengthen their safety, well-being and longer-term recovery through shelter and settlement solutions.
Indicator (1)
Number of people reached with shelter, housing and settlement interventions in advance of a hazard
Objective (2)
Vulnerable people have increased access to appropriate and sustainable water, sanitation and hygiene service
Indicator (2)
Number of people reached with WASH interventions in advance of a hazard
Objective (3)
Communities in high risk areas are prepared for and able to respond to disasters
Indicator (3a)
Number of community members that have been sensitized and are aware of possible early warning/early actions
Indicator (3b)
Number of volunteers trained in Disaster Risk Reduction and Early warning and early actions
Indicator (3c)
Number of people reached with livelihoods interventions in advance of a hazard
Objective (4)
The National Society and key actors are well prepared to implement the EAP
Indicator (4)
The National Society and key actors are well prepared to implement the EAP.
3. Purpose
The purpose of this review is twofold. The first objective is to understand the extent to which the Floods Anticipatory Actions implemented in February 2023 in Zambia have been relevant, effective to the communities and if they were implemented efficiently. The second objective is to learn how the transition from anticipatory action to emergency response went and what we can learn from this.
4. Key research questions
The consultant will conduct two types of reviews: one qualitative community assessment amongst the communities and one qualitative in-person review with the anticipatory action stakeholders that took part in this action.
Qualitative community Assessment
The consultant will analyze the main research questions pertaining to the relevance, effectiveness and efficiency of the Anticipatory Actions that were taken during the activation of the EAP. The questions to be answered by this qualitative ‘impact’ assessment are the following.
In institutional consultations
- To what extent were National Societies organizationally and operationally ready to activate EAPs?
- Were the annual readiness activities done as planned, in advance of a trigger?
- Was the stock required for the activation prepositioned in advance of the activation?
- Did stock availability enable implementation of early actions?
- To what extent did the activation and implementation of early actions go as planned?
- The coordination, flow of information, activation process.
- The forecast and the trigger. Was the trigger met as stated in the plan? Were there changes made to the triggers?
- The early actions, activities planned vs. activities delivered. Effectiveness (actions implemented and targets reached)?
- Timeliness of activation (If information is available): how long did it take to from the trigger being reached, to the decision to activate, to submission of notification documentation, to transfer of funds and how did this timeliness impact on the next point, timeliness of implementation?
- Timeliness of implementation (use of the window between forecast and extreme weather event): to what extent were early actions implemented within the lead time, or after the hazard/disaster materialized?
- As much as possible, investigate the reasons for success or failure of the activation and outline any contributing or hindering factor, trends in learnings. Identify further areas to investigate/evaluate.
- Basic financial analysis: budget vs actual spent.
In community consultations
- Have the Anticipatory Actions been effective in helping vulnerable households to protect their lives and livelihoods from the flood, as measured by:
- Access to safe shelter and to basic household items including mosquito nets
- Access to safe water and proper hygiene
- Awareness on the coming danger
- Uninterrupted access to food through proper food storage
- Have the Anticipatory Actions been effective in helping the beneficiaries to avoid negative coping strategies, including:
- Selling important assets to use the money to buy foods
- Drinking unsafe water
- Poor hygiene practices
- Injuries due to delayed evacuation
- Damage to shelter and infrastructure
- To what extent was the delivered assistance and support relevant to your needs?
- Did you have a specific expectation about the support? If yes, was your expectation met?
- How would you describe the quality of the items you received?
- How appropriate did you find the mode of delivery of the support to you?
- Did you feel like the most vulnerable people in your community were supported? If not, why not and/or who should have been included?
- How and by whom have you been informed about the imminent danger of the floods?
- Do you feel you have been properly informed about the imminent danger? If not, what could have been improved?
Stakeholder review
The consultant will be required to hold in-person group session(s) with all the relevant stakeholders involved in the February floods anticipatory actions led by ZRCS. This means the stakeholders present on the ground in Zambia (ZRCS, WARMA, DMMU), Partner National Societies working in Zambia and the IFRC. It is recommended to work with an approach similar to the Institutional Histories approach. The questions to be answered by this stakeholder review are:
- How did the transition from anticipatory action to emergency response go (in terms of tools, transition and complementarity of financial and material resources, agility of the responders’ teams, coordination with local and national stakeholders, partners’ support, etc.)? What can we collectively learn and improve from this experience?
- To what extent did the implementation of the two approaches of anticipatory humanitarian action and PER (Preparedness for Effective Response) work in synergy in getting ZRCS ready to respond to the situation?
5. Data collection methods and sampling
Qualitative community assessment
The consultant can propose any type of qualitative methodology using a variety of qualitative data collection tools. Additionally, the consultant has to draft an adequate sampling strategy to ensure that the findings can come as close to being representative of the two districts as possible.
Stakeholder review
In Zambia, an in-person learning session (or multiple sessions) should be conducted with the key stakeholders according to the Institutional Histories or a similar approach.
6. Specific tasks and deliverables
For both the qualitative community assessment as well as the stakeholder review, the consultant will provide ZRCS and NLRC with the following key deliverables:
- Inception report outlining the detailed research design.
- Desk review: using EAP and response documents, documentation on Response Preparedness projects and PER related activities.
- Qualitative data collected from community members and key stakeholders including a few pictures of meetings with communities and stakeholders and any other relevant pictures taken from the visit which might add valuable information.
- Learning session guide and delivery of the learning session.
- Final product: evaluation report as well as a visual overview of the blueprint of the process in practice highlighting key aspects in the process that led to successful outcomes and key aspects that caused challenges.
7. Responsibilities and lines of communication
This evaluation is commissioned by the Head of the International Assistance Department of the NLRC. The process of the evaluation will be managed by an Evaluation Management Team (EMT) consisting of the NLRC PMEAL Advisor and the NLRC Technical Advisor. The American Red Cross (AmCross) and the IFRC are key partners that can contribute to certain aspects of the evaluation, including to the final report for the wider audience, when requested upon by NLRC.
The EMT provides input and advice throughout the evaluation process, especially regarding tools and methodology. It will monitor the evaluation management, design, implementation and quality control.
The evaluator will be selected through a tender procedure. The NLRC-Logistics Officer will post the Terms of Reference (ToR), requesting an expression of interest from at least three candidates. The EMT, using a comparative bid analysis tool, is responsible for the final selection.
Payment is subject to satisfactory performance and completion of all deliverables.
All submissions will be made electronically (email, Skype, phone, etc.), unless requested otherwise by the NLRC
team.
8. Duration of the consultancy
The contract is entered between the Netherlands Red Cross (NLRC) and the contractor. The estimated level of effort is 20 working days. The approximate start date is July 2023. All tasks are expected to be implemented and completed, with final products delivered by 1st October 2023.
9. Required qualifications and experience of the consultant
- Graduate or advanced (PhD) degree in relevant disciplines such as statistics, demography, economics, sociology or related disciplines
- Proven experience in a variety of qualitative research methods
- Track record of previously conducted qualitative assessments (examples to be attached to application)
- Experience with qualitative evaluations of Anticipated Action programming highly desirable
- The consultant or consultant firm needs to be based in Zambia, we do not cover international travel costs
10. Analysis Criteria
The winning bid will be the one deemed the most economically advantageous (quality of technical proposal and previous work vs. value of financial proposal). Key assessment criteria:
1. Proposed methodology and approach
– Suitability & credibility of the approach to answering the key evaluation questions.
– Capacity of proposal to meet all deliverables and objectives set out in ToR.
2. Experience of company/service provider
– Evaluator has proven experience leading qualitative research
– Evaluator has experience working in the similar regions and on similar topics.
– Evaluator has published academic paper(s)
3 Writing and presentation
– Concise, well written proposal in language matching ToR.
– Layout and presentation of proposal.
4. Environmental Impact
– Proposal clearly attempts to minimise its carbon footprint.
– Proposal is in line with NLRC climate charter.
The deadline for applications is 31st May 2023.
Interested institutions should submit the following documents electronically to [email protected]
- Short technical proposal summarizing:
- Qualifications and relevant experience with similar assignments
- Reflections on the research design
- Draft work plan
- Approach to answering all questions and achieving deliverables
- Suggested timing of carrying out the specific tasks
- 2 samples of previous work that show the expertise and experience of the consultant; samples must be the original work of the contractor (e.g. analytical reports or peer-reviewed journal articles).
- Financial proposal including detailed budgets for professional fees and reimbursable expenses (if any) for all tasks related to this assignment (including all expenses and fees related to quantitative data collection process). It should be noted that it is the consultants responsibility to find, pay and manage data collectors, so this should be taken up in the budget. No payments will be made outside the contractually agreed budget.
Incomplete applications or applications that are received late will not be considered. Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted.
