Resilience Analysis for Project Design under the BMZ Transitional Development Assistance Programme for Mali and Niger 30 views0 applications

arche nova e.V., together with Arbeiter-Samariter-Bund (ASB), is preparing a project under the BMZ Transitional Development Assistance (TDA) framework in the Gao region of Mali and the Tahoua region of Niger. Implementation of the envisaged action will take place in cooperation with local partner organisations.

The BMZ TDA framework is designed to strengthen the resilience of people and local structures affected by protracted and acute crises, enabling them to better manage existing shocks and stresses and to reduce vulnerability to future crises. As a funding instrument situated within the humanitarian-development-peace nexus, TDA places particular emphasis on the interlinkages between immediate needs, longer-term resilience building and structural change. In this understanding, resilience is strengthened by supporting affected populations and local structures to cope with crises more independently, to prepare for recurring pressures, to reduce negative impacts over time, and to create more sustainable prospects through longer-term institutional and structural improvements. In line with BMZ’s approach, TDA projects are expected to contribute to stabilization, adaptation and transformation capacities, while promoting participation and self-help.

Against this background, the present ToR sets out the scope, objectives, methodology and expected deliverables for a project-shaping resilience analysis that will inform the design of the proposed BMZ Transitional Development Assistance project in Mali and Niger.

The Project

Project Duration: November 2026-December 2030

Countries: Niger (Tahoua) and Mali (Gao)

The project “SWIFT – Strengthening WASH, Inclusion, Food Security, and Transformative Resilience for the most at-risk Population Groups in Conflict- and Climate-Affected Border Regions of Mali and Niger” aims to strengthen the resilience of refugees, IDPs and host communities affected by protracted conflict and climate shocks in the border regions of Mali (Gao) and Niger (Tahoua) through climate-adapted livelihoods, improved food security, sustainable WASH services, inclusive governance, and peaceful resource management.

The project target groups are internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, returnees, and vulnerable host communities affected by conflict, climate change, food insecurity, and weak basic infrastructure. Particular attention is given to women and girls, who face heightened protection risks and limited access to services and opportunities; youth, who are especially affected by unemployment, poverty, and social exclusion; people with disabilities, who encounter significant barriers to safe and inclusive services; and agropastoral households, whose livelihoods are increasingly threatened by drought, resource scarcity, and conflict.
The project outcomes are:

• Outcome 1: Target households at risk of food insecurity have sustainably improved their food and nutritional security by adopting climate-resilient agro-pastoral practices, increasing and stabilising the incomes of women and young people, and gaining equitable access to a diverse and high-quality diet, including through sustainable school feeding programs.
• Outcome 2: Targeted populations’ access to water, hygiene and sanitation (WASH) services is sustainably improved in an inclusive and climate-resilient manner, supported by the strengthening of hygiene practices and digitalised local governance ensuring transparency and efficiency.
• Outcome 3: The resilience of communities to shocks is strengthened through the integration of risk management into local planning and the operationalisation of inclusive mechanisms for prevention, early warning and crisis response.
• Outcome 4: Target communities on local, regional and national level apply inclusive and equitable governance practices, strengthen social cohesion and a culture of peace, and manage their resources peacefully and sustainably, with the active and equal participation of women, young people, IDPs and persons with disabilities in decision-making and local planning processes.

The resilience analysis is expected to assess and, where necessary, refine the assumptions underlying these outcomes and the proposed pathways through which the project is expected to contribute to resilience strengthening.

Objectives

The objective of the consultancy is to conduct a project-shaping resilience analysis that provides a sound evidence base for the design of the proposed BMZ Transitional Development Assistance project in Gao (Mali) and Tahoua (Niger).

The analysis shall identify the key risks, crises, conflict dynamics and vulnerabilities affecting the target groups and local structures, assess existing resilience capacities and gaps at individual, household, community and local institutional level, and generate practical recommendations for project design, the theory of change, the logframe indicators, do-no-harm analysis and risk mitigation measures.

In doing so, the consultancy shall identify the relevant actors at all levels and ensure their meaningful involvement in the data collection and analytical process. Particular emphasis shall be placed on the local perspectives of people affected by risks and crises.

In particular, the analysis shall:

• identify the main risks, crises and vulnerabilities affecting the target populations and local systems;
• assess how these risks interact and affect different groups in different ways;
• identify the target groups, local structures and parts of the system whose resilience should be strengthened;
• analyse existing resilience capacities and gaps, distinguishing between stabilization, adaptation and transformation capacities;
• identify existing local assets, practices, knowledge and structures that can be built upon by the project;
• assess the capacities, roles and constraints of local actors and identify realistic entry points for localisation and capacity strengthening;
• generate practical inputs for the project’s theory of change, logframe, indicators and monitoring framework.

Key Results

The consultancy is expected to deliver the following key results:

• a systematic analysis of the risk, crisis and conflict context in the target areas;
• a clear identification of the target groups, vulnerable groups and relevant parts of the system whose resilience should be strengthened;
• an analysis of existing resilience capacities, gaps and potentials at individual, household, community and local institutional level;
• a resilience capacity matrix that distinguishes between stabilization, adaptation and transformation capacities across different levels;
• practical recommendations for project design, including implications for localisation, inclusion, conflict sensitivity and sustainability;
• explicit inputs for the project’s theory of change, logframe, indicators, assumptions, risk analysis, and mitigation of the identified risks.

Framework for Key Questions

Context, risks and vulnerabilities

Assess the local context in Gao (Mali) and Tahoua (Niger), focusing on the major risks, crises, vulnerabilities and conflict dynamics affecting the target groups and relevant local structures.

In particular, the analysis should:

• assess ecological, economic, political, security-related and social risks and crises affecting the target areas;
• analyse how climate change, insecurity, displacement, food insecurity, limited access to services, weak governance and social tensions affect different population groups;
• identify conflict dynamics, violence patterns and relevant drivers of tension;
• assess how different risks and crises are interrelated and how they may evolve over time.

Resilience capacities and gaps

Analyse how individuals, households, communities and relevant local structures currently respond to crises, shocks and recurring stresses, and identify which groups are particularly vulnerable to the highlighted risks and why.

The analysis should:

• examine existing coping, preparedness and adaptation strategies used by different groups and structures, including both effective and potentially negative coping strategies;
• identify existing resilience capacities at individual, household, community and local institutional level;
• distinguish clearly between stabilization capacity, adaptation capacity and transformation capacity:
• assess which capacities are already in place, which remain weak or insufficient, and which should be strengthened through the project;
• identify existing local assets, practices, knowledge, community mechanisms and institutional arrangements that can be built upon;
• present the findings in a resilience capacity matrix structured by target group, sector/system, level and type of capacity.

Actors, governance and localisation

Map relevant actors at local, subnational and other relevant levels, including public institutions, community-based structures, civil society actors, local partner organisations, informal networks and other relevant stakeholders.

The analysis should examine:

• their roles, interests, resources, capacities and limitations;
• existing coordination and decision-making mechanisms;
• patterns of inclusion, exclusion and representation;
• relevant power relations affecting access to services, resources and participation;
• realistic opportunities for strengthening local ownership, localisation and sustainable local structures through the project.

Humanitarian-development-peace nexus

Map relevant humanitarian, development and peacebuilding actors active in the target areas and assess their respective roles, comparative advantages and areas of intervention.

The analysis should identify:

• existing coordination and exchange mechanisms;
• opportunities for complementarity, cooperation and synergies;
• entry points for linking humanitarian action, long-term resilience strengthening and peace-oriented approaches.

Sectoral and system-level implications

Based on the identified risks, vulnerabilities and resilience capacities, the analysis should provide practical insights for the sectors and systems relevant to the project, including:

• food and nutrition security;
• livelihoods and income generation;
• climate-adapted agro-pastoral production;
• WASH and hygiene;
• local governance and accountability;
• social cohesion, conflict prevention and peaceful resource management.

For each relevant sector or system, the analysis should identify key constraints, existing capacities, opportunities for strengthening resilience and implications for project design.

Do No Harm, inclusion and conflict sensitivity

The analysis shall identify potential unintended negative effects of the proposed intervention on conflict dynamics, social cohesion, access to resources and local power relations.

It should specifically examine whether certain groups may be excluded, disadvantaged or exposed to heightened risks on the basis of gender, age, disability, displacement status, ethnicity, religion or other vulnerability criteria.

The analysis should also provide practical recommendations on:

• how such risks can be prevented from the outset;
• how they can be identified and monitored during implementation;
• which feedback, complaint or context-monitoring mechanisms should be in place;
• how the project can respond to and mitigate unintended negative effects in line with a do-no-harm approach.

Implications for project design, theory of change and logframe

The analysis shall provide explicit inputs for the project design by:

• identifying plausible causal pathways linking activities, outputs, outcomes and the intended impact;
• clarifying which resilience capacities should be strengthened at which level and through which types of interventions;
• identifying assumptions and risks relevant to the project logic;
• generating recommendations for the refinement of the project’s theory of change, logframe and context-specific indicators.

Methodology

The consultancy shall apply a mixed-methods approach combining secondary and primary data collection. The methodology should include focus group discussions, key informant interviews and other appropriate qualitative methods using guiding questions that allow for a thorough understanding of local perceptions of resilience, risks and existing resilience capacities at different levels.
Where feasible and useful, the qualitative approach should be complemented by quantitative surveys, for example at household level.

The methodology must ensure that the perspectives of crisis-affected populations are placed at the centre of the analysis and that gender, inclusion, disability, displacement-related vulnerabilities and conflict sensitivity are adequately considered.

The methodology and fieldwork plan shall take into account local access and security constraints and propose feasible alternatives where direct access is limited.

The consultant/team shall ensure that data collection is conducted in a safe, ethical and conflict-sensitive manner. Informed consent, confidentiality and data protection principles must be respected throughout the assignment. Particular care shall be taken when engaging vulnerable groups and discussing sensitive issues.

Validation and consultation

The consultancy shall include a validation workshop or an equivalent structured consultation process with partner organisations, representatives of affected communities and other relevant stakeholders in order to discuss, validate and refine the findings, conclusions and recommendations.

Deliverables

The consultant or consultant team shall provide the following deliverables:

1. Inception Report
   To be submitted prior to the start of field research. Based on the relevant BMZ guidance and this ToR, the inception report shall include:
   • a refined analytical framework;
   • the proposed methodology, including research methods, sampling approach and data collection tools;
   • a workplan and detailed timeline;
   • a description of how gender, inclusion, conflict sensitivity and local participation will be addressed in the analysis.
2. Debriefings during the research phase
   The consultant/team shall conduct regular debrief sessions with the project management and implementation team during the research phase in order to share emerging observations, validate assumptions and identify any issues requiring early attention.
3. Validation / review workshop
   Following the data collection and preliminary analysis, the consultant/team shall facilitate a review and exchange workshop with arche nova, consortium partners and local implementing partners to discuss preliminary findings. Where feasible and appropriate, representatives of target groups and other relevant stakeholders should be involved in this process.
4. Draft Resilience Analysis Report
   The consultant/team shall submit a draft report presenting the main findings of the analysis, including:
   • an analysis of the risk, crisis and conflict context;
   • identification of key vulnerabilities and affected groups;
   • analysis of existing resilience capacities and gaps;
   • a Resilience Capacity Matrix visualising capacities and gaps at different levels;
   • findings on local structures, actors, localisation potential and coordination;
   • recommendations for risk mitigation and resilience-strengthening strategies;
   • implications for project design, including the theory of change, logframe, assumptions and indicators.
5. Final Resilience Analysis Report
   The final report shall incorporate comments received on the draft and present the final findings and recommendations in a clear and actionable manner.
6. Primary data and supporting materials
   The consultant/team shall submit digital copies of the primary data collected and used in the analysis, in an accessible format and in line with applicable data protection and confidentiality standards.

The draft and final reports shall be submitted electronically. The final report shall be submitted no later than two weeks after receipt of consolidated comments on the draft report (and no later than the last day of the consultancy duration (deadline). The report should not exceed 40 pages, excluding annexes, and should include at least an executive summary, methodology, findings, conclusions, recommendations and annexes. The deliverables shall be prepared in a way that allows the findings to be directly used for the BMZ proposal, including the refinement of the project’s theory of change, logframe, indicators, assumptions, risk analysis and localisation approach.

Duration and location of the assignment

Duration of the assignment: 10th July 2026 to 31st July 2026

The consultancy is expected to cover all steps of the assignment, from inception to final reporting, within the agreed timeframe.

The analysis will cover the project intervention areas in Gao region, Mali, and Tahoua region, Niger. Travel to selected field locations may be required and will be coordinated with arche nova and the relevant partners, subject to access and security considerations.

Payment

The consultancy fee shall be quoted as a gross amount and shall include all costs associated with the assignment, including travel, accommodation, communication, insurance, taxes and any other related expenses, unless otherwise agreed.

Payments shall be made upon submission and approval of the agreed deliverables and certification by the responsible supervisor that the services have been satisfactorily completed.

Payment shall only be made for deliverables submitted within the agreed timeframe and meeting the required quality standards.

Key qualifications

The consultant, consultancy firm or consortium should meet the following qualifications:

• demonstrated experience in designing and conducting resilience, risk, context and conflict-sensitive analyses in fragile settings;
• strong analytical experience in one or more of the following sectors relevant to the project**: WASH, food and nutrition security, livelihoods, social cohesion, conflict prevention, disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation**;
• proven experience in applying participatory and mixed-methods approaches, including qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis;
• experience working with displaced populations, vulnerable host communities, women and girls, youth, persons with disabilities and other vulnerable groups;
• strong understanding of localisation, community-based approaches and inclusive programming;
• demonstrated understanding of gender, inclusion, protection and conflict sensitivity / do-no-harm;
• sound knowledge of the Mali and Niger context, particularly in fragile, borderland or crisis-affected settings;
• working proficiency in French is required; knowledge of relevant local languages is a strong asset.

A gender-balanced team composition is strongly encouraged. Field teams should be composed in a way that ensures safe, inclusive and context-appropriate access to different population groups.

1. German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development
2. https://www.bmz.de/en/issues/transitional-development-assistance

How to apply

Interested consultants or consultancy firms are invited to submit the following documents by the deadline of 6th of July 2026 to [email protected]:

1. Cover letter (maximum 1 page), summarising relevant experience and suitability for the assignment;
2. Technical proposal (maximum 4 pages), outlining the understanding of the assignment, the proposed methodology and a draft workplan;
3. Financial proposal (maximum 1 page), clearly presenting the total cost of the assignment;
4. CVs of the proposed key experts.

Applications should be submitted electronically to the contact address indicated in the call.

Evaluation of proposals

Applications will be evaluated using a cumulative analysis method based on both technical and financial criteria:

• Technical evaluation: 80%
• Financial evaluation: 20%

The technical evaluation will consider:

• relevant experience and qualifications of the consultant/team;
• quality and feasibility of the proposed methodology;
• understanding of the Terms of Reference;
• quality of the proposed workplan.

The financial evaluation will assess the clarity, transparency and reasonableness of the financial proposal.

Only applicants achieving the minimum technical score defined in the call will be considered for financial evaluation. Interviews and/or written tests may be used as part of the assessment process.

Important notes

• Only shortlisted applicants will be contacted.
• The contracting organisation reserves the right to review applications on a rolling basis if indicated in the call.
• The consultant/team is responsible for compliance with applicable tax and legal obligations.
• Travel and fieldwork arrangements will be subject to access and security considerations.
• The consultant is responsible for their own safety and security, as well as that of their team members and their equipment and materials. The contractor cannot be held responsible for any harm suffered, such as injury, damage or loss of equipment, acts of banditry, theft, or robberies. However, given the volatile security situation in the Gao region (Mali) and Tahoua (Niger), arche nova, ASB, and their partners will provide security information to the consultant.
• The contracting organisation reserves the right not to award the contract if suitable applications are not received.

We appreciate your interest in this assignment and look forward to reviewing your application.